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Canada’s mining sector is facing an unprecedented attack from the Trump Administration, which has yet again trained its sights on Canadian metals and minerals. After losing a trade war against Canada’s aluminum and steel industries in 2018-19, Trump is now threatening all of Canada’s mining and metals sector with up to 50% tariffs.
The mining sector is a critical part of Canada’s supply chain, playing an outsized role in supporting manufacturing, energy, petrochemical and construction industries, among other key economic sectors. It directly contributes over $100 billion to Canada’s GDP and employs over 400,000 workers.
Trump’s tariffs will only serve to hurt workers, consumers and businesses in the United States. The U.S. is far more reliant on Canada for its metals and minerals supply than most other countries, with Canada accounting for 22% of steel, 60% of aluminum, 45% of nickel, 62% of zinc, 86% of potash, and 27% of uranium imports, among other critical minerals and metals.
While the stated reason for levying these tariffs on Canada is to revive mining and metals processing capacity in the U.S. and increase overall manufacturing output, evidence from the last round of Trump’s trade war suggests that tariffs will achieve exactly the opposite effect.
The U.S. Federal Reserve estimated in 2020 that the 2018-19 tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum led to the loss of approximately 75,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs owing to the higher cost of inputs.
A U.S. Congressional study from 2021 noted that primary aluminum manufacturing employment in the U.S. declined by 700 workers from 2017 to 2020, while the tariffs did nothing to stop the shrinking capacity of the American aluminum manufacturing sector.
A 2023 study by the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) found that U.S. importers nearly bore the full costs of the tariffs, with any marginal bump in steel and aluminum production being more than offset by a $13.4 billion fall in downstream production from 2018 to 2021 due to higher steel and aluminum costs.
Not only is Trump making the same mistake again, he is compounding it by expanding his list targets to encompass all of Canada’s mining sector. This will only further increase costs on vital products that Americans need, including everything from Canadian road salt that U.S. municipalities rely on, to Canadian potash which is the lifeblood of American agriculture.
The simple fact of the matter is that the U.S. has no other option than Canada when it comes to sourcing reliable and cost-efficient metals and minerals. Canadian aluminum production, for example, generates two-thirds to three-quarters less in emissions than aluminum from other regions of the world. If the U.S. were to onshore all of its Canadian aluminum imports, it would require 40 million megawatt-hours of electricity, which is the equivalent of four and half times the annual output of the Hoover dam.
The proposed tariff threats clearly pose a real risk to Canada’s mining industry. However, they also create an opening to foster new trade relationships and could act as a much-needed push to accelerate the development of Canada’s critical minerals ecosystem.
Unifor’s Mining Council, representing nearly 10,000 members nationwide, is committed to defending the mining industry to safeguard jobs, investments, and industrial capacity. Unifor will actively advocate for our industry, its workers, and its communities while it faces these threats.
Unifor stands ready to work with all levels of government to develop effective strategies to defend the industry against Trump’s tariffs, so long as these counter-measures – including retaliatory tariffs – protect the jobs of Canadian mining and metal workers. Collective agreements will help to support Unifor members and all workers in the industry as workers confront these challenges together.
Unifor is dedicated to ensuring that the mining industry continues to serve as one of the primary economic engines of Canada and a continuing source of good, unionized jobs. Unifor will collaborate with like-minded unions, governments and organizations to promote just trade, sustainable mining practices, and solidarity within the workforce.
Together, Canadian workers can overcome the threat of Trump’s trade war and forge a brighter, more prosperous future for Canada's mining industry.
